Highest temperature in Beijing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract priced at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying there is no bid that the Beijing Capital International Airport Station will print the listed outcome on 3 August. On Polymarket, traders lock USDC into conditional tokens on Polygon, and this market resolves off the highest temperature recorded on Wunderground for that station, in whole Celsius degrees, with the first published reading for the following date acting as the cut-off for revisions[6].

The historical frame still matters because early August in Beijing is usually hot, but not uniformly extreme. Long-run August guides cluster around average highs near 30–31°C, with some forecasts and travel guides showing peaks in the low-to-mid 30s, and occasional days above 35°C during the first half of the month[1][5][7][10][15]. That means a 0% quote is only rational if traders think the eventual settled bucket is already effectively outside the active price grid, or if liquidity is too thin to reflect a realistic weather distribution; by contrast, recent market guidance on the event page itself points to daytime highs near 33°C with thunderstorms that could cap the peak or leave a short clearing window for a higher reading[6].

For today’s catalyst, watch the airport station’s actual midday and afternoon evolution rather than broad city forecasts, because the settlement depends on the single highest observation, not the average or the official city forecast. Current public forecasts for Beijing show a humid, storm-prone summer pattern with thunderstorms and highs around 32–33°C, while some model-based pages push towards 35–37°C, which is the main path to a higher print if cloud cover and rainfall arrive late[2][3][8]. On a market like this, the practical trigger is any updated forecast package, a shift in thunderstorm timing, or a surprising clear-sky heating run that allows the airport station to briefly overshoot expectations before the first next-day datapoint locks the result[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.