Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will determine this market's settlement. The contract currently trades at 0% implied probability across Polymarket's USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon, suggesting traders assess an exceptionally low likelihood of the temperature falling into whichever range this particular YES outcome represents. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary section, a distinction that matters when automated feeds occasionally diverge from manual station recordings.

Chengdu's August climate presents a predictable pattern: the city sits in a subtropical zone where mid-August temperatures typically range between 24–34°C, with extreme highs occasionally reaching 37–38°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows August 14 specifically has recorded highs between 28–33°C in most years, though 2013 and 2017 saw peaks near 35°C during particularly intense summer conditions. The 0% pricing suggests the market has settled on a temperature threshold so extreme—or conversely, so mild—that current meteorological expectations make it an outlier event.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China's meteorological forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves across Sichuan Province. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during mid-2026 will influence regional temperature patterns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 14 August, requiring traders to verify Wundergro's final reading against Weather Underground's primary data source before conditional tokens resolve on-chain.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.