Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all YES outcomes at 0%, reflecting either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full range of possibilities. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that matters when automated systems and manual readings diverge—a common occurrence at major Asian airports where multiple monitoring stations operate simultaneously.

Chongqing's August climate presents a narrow historical window. The city experiences peak summer heat in mid-August, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–37°C, though extremes have occasionally exceeded 40°C during particularly intense heatwaves. The 2022 and 2023 summer seasons saw Chongqing record temperatures above 39°C on multiple August days, whilst 2024 remained comparatively moderate. These precedents suggest the market's current 0% YES pricing may reflect either a specific temperature threshold that historical data makes unlikely, or simply the market's nascent stage with minimal trading activity establishing price discovery.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for major cities. The timing of monsoon systems moving through the Yangtze River valley will prove decisive—early-month tropical moisture can suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems from the north drive extreme heat. Jiangbei Airport's location on the Jialing River means local microclimatic factors occasionally produce readings 1–2°C higher than downtown Chongqing, a detail worth tracking against broader regional forecasts.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

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