Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract priced at **0% YES** right now, so the market is effectively saying there is no chance the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station posts a top reading inside the winning temperature band for 3 August. On-chain, that price reflects where traders are willing to swap **USDC** on **Polygon** for the conditional tokens tied to the settlement outcome, with the final answer determined by the Wunderground daily-history reading for that station.

For context, Chongqing is a hot August market, but the relevant benchmark is the *day’s peak* at the airport station, not the citywide average. Historical August guides put typical highs around **34°C**, and one reference for 3 August gives a historical high of **34.7°C**, which is a useful anchor for how broad or narrow the winning range may be. Chongqing’s all-time heat record is far above that, at **43°C**, so extreme spikes are possible even if they are unusual. That combination usually keeps attention on whether the day lands near the low- to mid-30s or breaks higher.

A trader watching the final hours should focus on the local forecast, any shift in cloud cover or rainfall, and the actual airport station observation window on Wunderground, since the market settles on the highest temperature recorded there before the deadline. Morning cloud, convection, and passing showers can cap the maximum, while a clear, dry afternoon can push the reading towards the upper bands. With the market already tiny in volume at **$54**, even a modest revision in the expected high can matter disproportionately if fresh weather data comes in before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.