Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s airport temperature market is pricing a **39°C** outcome as the frontrunner at **42%**, with **38°C** next at **31%** on Polymarket’s USDC-denominated, Polygon-based conditional token market. That means traders are already leaning towards a very hot afternoon at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport, even though settlement will depend only on the highest reading recorded there on the day, not on city-wide averages or forecast headlines.[3]

For context, July in Chongqing is usually hot, humid and rain-affected, which matters because cloud cover and thunderstorms can hold down the daily high even in a strong summer heat pattern. Travel guidance for the city puts July’s average high around **33°C**, with rainfall spread across the month and several heavy thunderstorms, while broader climate summaries describe May to September as the rainy season, when most of the annual rain falls.[1][2] Against that backdrop, a market that is already centred on **38–39°C** is effectively asking whether the day at the airport will run several degrees above the typical July norm.[1][3]

The main catalysts are the live temperature path through the afternoon, the timing and extent of any convective rain or thunderstorms, and whether the airport station briefly spikes before cloud or precipitation arrives. Because the market resolves from Wunderground’s daily history for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, traders should watch the station’s intraday highs rather than general city forecasts, as the settlement source is the recorded maximum for the day.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.