Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s airport weather is priced on Polymarket at **0% YES**, which means the contract is currently implying no chance that the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station prints a highest temperature inside the market’s target range on 27 July. Because settlement uses the day’s peak reading from Wunderground rather than the city as a whole, traders holding USDC on Polygon are effectively betting on the exact station observation that will be wrapped into conditional tokens at resolution.

The market is framed by Guangzhou’s usual late-July heat, but the current setup looks more like a range trade around the forecasted daily maximum than a broad climate call. A 10-day forecast for Guangzhou shows the next period with unstable conditions and highs between **33°C and 37°C**, which is consistent with a very warm south China midsummer pattern rather than an outlier cool day.[1] In that context, a zero-priced contract mainly reflects how narrow the settlement band is versus the expected temperature distribution.

For traders, the key catalysts are the airport station’s hourly evolution, any rain or thunderstorm coverage that caps daytime heating, and the final Wunderground daily high before the UTC noon settlement cut-off. The most relevant dependency is not a government announcement but the progression of local convective weather through the morning and early afternoon, because cloud cover and rainfall can suppress the station maximum even when the broader regional forecast stays hot.[1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.