Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 28 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the available brackets. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in their Daily Extract dataset, with resolution delayed until that data becomes available—typically within days of the observation date.

Hong Kong's July temperatures cluster reliably between 32°C and 35°C, with historical extremes rarely breaching 36°C during the month. The Observatory recorded 35.9°C on 28 July 2012 and 35.5°C on 28 July 2018, establishing a narrow band for what constitutes an outlier day. The current 0% probability suggests the market has already converged on a single temperature range as most likely, with traders holding conditional USDC positions on Polygon that will resolve to either full value or zero depending on which bracket the actual reading falls into.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Meteorological Society's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during late July 2026, as both significantly influence daily maxima. The Observatory publishes extended forecasts roughly ten days ahead; any alerts for heat waves or unusual pressure systems would shift expectations. Settlement mechanics require the Observatory's official publication before conditional tokens can be redeemed, making the timing of their data release a secondary consideration for traders managing positions.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.