Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, Istanbul Airport will record its daily maximum temperature, and this market settles on which range contains that figure. The crowd is currently pricing all temperature bands at 0%, suggesting either minimal liquidity or uncertainty about which bracket will resolve. NOAA's automated station at Atatürk International Airport (LTFM) provides the official reading, with settlement determined by the highest "Temp" column entry across all timestamps that day. The market closes to new positions at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date, though resolution waits for the following day's first data publication to confirm the final figure.

Istanbul's July climate presents a narrow band of likely outcomes. Historical data shows late-July highs clustering between 28–32°C, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 35°C or falling below 26°C. The city experienced 40.5°C in July 2000 and has seen multiple summers with sustained 30–33°C peaks. Mediterranean high-pressure systems dominate this period, making heat waves the primary driver of upside surprises. The 0% crowd probability reflects either thin order books or traders awaiting more granular forecasts closer to the event date.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather models from mid-July onwards, particularly ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs showing upper-air patterns over the Eastern Mediterranean. Any significant blocking high or heat dome formation would shift probability mass toward higher temperature ranges. Turkish meteorological bulletins and airport-specific forecasts become actionable data points in the final week. Settlement depends entirely on NOAA's automated recording—no manual adjustments or alternative sources apply—making the technical availability of that data feed a minor but real dependency.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.