Highest temperature in Munich on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, Munich Airport Station will record a daily high temperature, and this market settles to whichever Celsius range contains that figure. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state rather than any meteorological certainty—Polymarket's conditional token mechanics simply haven't yet attracted traders willing to stake USDC on specific temperature bands for this date. Settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical data portal for Munich Airport (EDDM), where the highest recorded temperature for the full calendar day becomes the resolution source.

Munich's July climate sits firmly in warm continental territory. Historical data from the past two decades shows late-July highs typically range between 24–28°C, with occasional excursions toward 30°C during heat waves. The city's record July temperature reached 37.3°C in 2015, though such extremes remain statistical outliers. Current seasonal patterns and the airport station's measurement consistency provide a baseline for evaluating which temperature bands carry genuine probability weight versus speculative positioning.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasting updates as July 2026 approaches, particularly from Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF models. Atmospheric pressure systems steering heat across central Europe typically become predictable 10–14 days in advance. Any significant heat dome formation or unusual ridge development over the Alps would shift probability mass toward higher temperature ranges. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, leaving minimal time for late-stage information shifts once morning temperatures are recorded.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.