Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's highest temperature reading on 27 July 2026 will determine the settlement outcome, with Wunderground's historical data serving as the official reference. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at zero probability, suggesting either technical settlement or minimal trader interest in this specific date-location pairing. USDC conditional tokens on Polygon will resolve based on whichever temperature band captures the peak reading recorded across all times that day at the station.

July temperatures in New York City historically cluster between 75°F and 88°F, with extreme heat events pushing into the low 90s. The city's record high for July stands at 104°F, set in 1966, though readings above 95°F occur roughly once per decade during the month. LaGuardia specifically tends to register slightly cooler maxima than Manhattan due to proximity to water bodies, typically running 2–4 degrees below central locations. Recent July patterns from 2020–2024 show most peak daily temperatures settling in the 82–87°F range, with occasional spikes to 90°F or above during heat waves.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly Atlantic hurricane activity and jet stream positioning, both of which influence northeastern summer temperatures. The National Weather Service's 30-day outlook, updated monthly, provides early signals for anomalous heat. Any significant tropical systems or blocking high-pressure systems developing in late June could shift expectations materially. Historical precedent suggests most July days at LaGuardia fall within a narrow band, making extreme outliers relatively rare events to price into conditional token positions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.