Highest temperature in Seoul on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this **highest temperature at Incheon Intl Airport Station on 24 July** contract at **0% YES**, so the market is currently saying a verified daily high in the relevant Celsius band is not being assigned any probability. On Polymarket, that view is expressed in **USDC** on **Polygon**, via conditional tokens that settle against the Wunderground daily-history record for Incheon, so the practical question is whether the station’s maximum reading before the settlement cut-off lands in the listed range, not whether Seoul feels hot in general.

The historical frame is mixed rather than extreme. Seoul and nearby Incheon usually sit in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius in July, but the month is also part of the Korean monsoon period, with frequent rain and humidity shaping the day’s high more than broad seasonal averages. Recent forecast coverage has pointed to hot conditions around the capital region, alongside rain bands affecting Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi, with daytime highs in the high 20s to low 30s and local rainfall totals that could cap the top-end temperature if cloud cover and showers hold through the afternoon.[1][4][5][7]

For traders, the main catalysts are the hourly evolution of the rain belt, any Korea Meteorological Administration updates, and the final Wunderground station observation used for settlement rather than city-wide forecasts. If showers arrive early or persist over Incheon, the maximum temperature can undershoot the broader Seoul forecast; if cloud breaks develop, the airport station can still print a warmer midday high. The market only resolves from the recorded station value, so last-minute changes in precipitation timing matter more than general summer heat headlines.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.