Highest temperature in Taipei on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei is currently experiencing heavy rain and typhoon conditions on 11 July 2026, with temperatures hovering around 27–29°C and a 100% chance of precipitation early in the day. This active weather system directly explains the crowd-implied 0% probability for any outcome below 22°C, as the storm suppresses extreme heat while the market’s frontrunner sits at 29°C with 28% implied probability.

Historical data for Taipei Songshan Airport shows July is the hottest month, with an average high of 92°F (33.3°C), yet recent typhoon activity has kept actual highs near 29°C. Comparable Polymarket contracts for early July 2026, such as the 4 July market where 35°C held 42% probability, indicate traders normally price in clear-sky heatwaves; the current 0% floor for low ranges reflects the immediate deviation from that norm due to the typhoon.

Traders should monitor the Central Weather Administration’s hourly updates for the typhoon’s track and intensity, as a rapid clearance could allow temperatures to spike toward 33–35°C by afternoon. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s final daily record for RCSS, and any shift in the storm’s path before 12:00 UTC settlement will alter the conditional token valuations on Polygon. AccuWeather forecasts a stray t-storm on 12 July but notes a rise to 94°F (34.4°C), suggesting the 11 July peak remains constrained by current rain.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.