Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying a Tokyo Haneda Airport high on 27 July 2026 is not yet being assigned any meaningful chance. The contract will settle against the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on the day, using the Wunderground daily history page and the Celsius setting, with payout delivered through Polymarket’s USDC-based conditional token structure on Polygon.

For context, Tokyo’s July climate is normally hot and humid, with typical city temperatures in the **25°C to 33°C** range, and July is generally part of the peak summer heat period rather than an outlier cool month.[2] WeatherSpark also notes that July wind conditions in Tokyo are fairly steady, which matters because it suggests a change in the daily high is more likely to come from broader air-mass or cloud-cover shifts than from brisk local cooling.[1] For a market like this, the important question is not whether Tokyo is “hot in general”, but whether the day’s maximum at Haneda clears whatever temperature band the contract is mapped to.

A trader watching this market should track the Japan Meteorological Agency’s short-range forecasts, any heat advisories, and the timing of sea-breeze and cloud cover over Tokyo Bay, because those factors can move the afternoon high by several degrees. The final settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, so the decisive move will usually come in the Tokyo afternoon; on a prediction-market basis, the relevant dependency is the observed Haneda station reading that Wunderground publishes for the day, not the citywide average or a forecast headline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.