Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, Warsaw will record a daily high temperature that traders are currently pricing at 0% probability across all outcome ranges on Polymarket. The settlement hinges on the highest temperature logged at Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, with resolution sourced directly from Weather Underground's historical data. The current crowd probability distribution suggests either extreme uncertainty about which temperature band will occur, or a technical issue with how the market's conditional tokens are being valued on Polygon's USDC rails.

Warsaw's July climate sits firmly in summer, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 23°C and 27°C during this period. The city's warmest Julys on record have occasionally pushed toward 30°C, though such extremes remain uncommon. Examining past years' data from the same airport station reveals that temperatures above 28°C occur in roughly one in five Julys, whilst readings below 20°C are rare but not unprecedented during cooler weather patterns. The 0% pricing across all ranges suggests traders should verify whether the market's outcome brackets are properly calibrated or if liquidity constraints are distorting the conditional token valuations.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch European weather forecasting updates from mid-July 2026, particularly any high-pressure systems moving across Central Europe that could drive temperatures upward. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 27 July, meaning the highest temperature recorded at any point during that calendar day—whether at dawn or mid-afternoon—determines the outcome. Any significant heatwave warnings issued by Poland's meteorological institute in the weeks preceding would be a material signal worth tracking.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.