Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing this Chengdu airport temperature contract at **0% YES**, which implies the market assigns no value to a top temperature falling into the specified winning range on 3 August. On Polymarket, traders post and match USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the live price reflects what the crowd is willing to pay for a particular settlement outcome rather than a general view of Chengdu’s weather.

For context, Chengdu’s August climate is usually hot and humid, with typical daytime highs around 30°C and many forecasts clustering in the low- to mid-30s Celsius.[2][14][16] Comparable August readings for Chengdu commonly sit near 33°C, while some historical August highs have reached the mid-30s, so a zero-priced contract points to the market treating the target range as unlikely rather than impossible.[2][13] That is a useful distinction on a temperature market where a one-degree shift can move the result into a different band.

The main catalysts are the actual forecast evolution for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, especially whether cloud cover, rainfall, or a short-lived heat spike develops before the noon UTC settlement window closes. Latest published August forecasts for the city range from about 33°C with showers to 35°C and sunny intervals, underscoring that traders should watch the intraday maximum rather than the morning reading.[1][15] Because the market resolves from Wunderground’s daily high for the airport station, any late-afternoon peak still matters even if earlier conditions look benign.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.