Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is already experiencing extreme heat this early July, with temperatures hitting 37.8°C on 8 July—the hottest early July day in 117 years of records since 1908[2]. This recent spike frames the current 0% YES probability on Polymarket as a reflection of market caution rather than a dismissal of heat risk, especially given that Seoul has previously reached 37.7°C in early July, beating the prior record from 1908[5]. Historical data shows July highs in Seoul typically range from 81°F to 85°F (27–29°C), rarely exceeding 91°F (33°C), though exceptional heatwaves have pushed readings significantly higher[4].

Traders should monitor daily updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration and real-time data from Wunderground for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, the designated resolution source[1]. A key catalyst is the ongoing heatwave affecting South Korea, which has already recorded its second-hottest July since 1973, with an average temperature of 27.1°C[6]. Any official announcement of a new national or regional heat record, particularly if temperatures approach or exceed 38°C, could shift conditional token pricing rapidly. The market settles on USDC via Polygon, with resolution tied strictly to the highest temperature recorded at RKSI on 11 July 2026.

With settlement ending at 2026-07-11T12:00:00Z, the window is narrow, and price movements will depend on hourly temperature reports. Current conditions show 86°F (30°C) at 9:00 am local time, partly sunny, suggesting further warming through the day[7]. Traders on polymarket.za.com should watch for sudden spikes above 35°C, as historical precedents indicate such thresholds are achievable during intense heatwaves in the region.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.